Depth of the non-ferrous metal industry report: antimony, supply slimming
Research at haitong securities in 2016-06-22"
Supply side contraction: China has half of the world's antimony reserves, is the world's first antimony producers at the same time, holds an important place on the supply side.But because of antimony mining smelting technology threshold is not high, the government management does not reach the designated position, around the long-term existence of illegal mining and smuggling of antimony, caused serious supply exceeds demand.Since 2015, with the government to take a series of control measures, to strengthen environmental supervision and improve the barriers to entry as an opportunity to start gradually control mining, dozen black combat smuggling, export restrictions, intended to supply side adjustment, to speed up the production concentration and the optimization of industry, the future supply of the contract a few a foregone conclusion;
Steady growth of demand side: in recent years, antimony, led by China, Asia's consumption rising rapidly.In the field of main consumption, antimony is used mainly for flame retardant.The market there is still room for growth in the short term, but long-term since will be affected by the state environmental protection policy and product standards to improve the uncertainty factors such as interference, thus hardly big opportunities.Application, the second largest lead-acid battery is facing industry recession in the short term, the risk of long-term more replaced by lithium battery, and with battery recycling ability rise, demand for native antimony resources co., LTD.Other consumption because of smaller and slow growth, so the demand for antimony pulling effect is not obvious.Taken together, antimony industry downstream demand in the short term will be flat or slightly up, medium and long term without the new growth point, antimony demand situation is grim;
Price support highlights: prices over the past decade, annual reports of listed companies as well as import and export data, can be found that pure antimony price cost roughly is in 44000 yuan/ton, but in 2015 the market price fell below the support, the related business performance of listed companies is also facing a sharp reversal, mainly rely on its own mineral resources to hold down costs.On the other hand, this means that the opportunity.Prices will eventually return to 44000 yuan/tons of normal levels.When the price of antimony oxide type of processed products will return to 2015 levels before;
Outlook 2016, with the launch of the new policy and implementation, the government's capacity and anti-smuggling policy to reduce supply.While the demand of antimony there are too many unknown factors, representing each segment is differ, antimony industry downstream demand in 2016 is expected to maintain steady or slightly increase.At the same time, the antimony price rapid fall in 2015, but below the cost predicament are unlikely to be sustained for a long time.With the acceleration of the integration of industry, the capacity will be more focused, in the case of relatively stable demand, antimony price is expected to return;
Main uncertainty: macro economic operation, to fulfill the policy of capacity and investigate the smuggling, flame retardant market consumption structure to improve the situation.